Czy w naukach o Ziemi potrzebna jest statystyka?
Posiedzenie Komisji Nauk Geologicznych PAN Oddział w Krakowie
Adam Walanus
www.adamwalanus.pl
Katedra Geoinformatyki i Informatyki Stosowanej, Wydział Geologii, Geofizyki i Ochrony Środowiska
AGH

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12a 12b 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 19a 19b 20 21 22 23 Temper. film 24 25 26 40 41 42

43 30 Odliczaj czas

123.4 ± 1.2
120.1 ± 2.4
121.8 ± 1.8




122.7 ± 1.1


1

g-2, 4.2σ
2

Pazdur M. F., Walanus A., Mościcki W.
1978
A method of continuous examination of counting efficiency during measurements of natural radiocarbon by a CO2 filled proportional counter
Nuclear Instruments and Methods
3
Rozkład normalny

14C      T1/2 = 5730 lat

4

5

1995
6

7

8

9

10

Walanus A., 1990, Running phase analysis - a method for cycle searching in long series
Computers & Geosciences

14C Radiocarbon

11

12a

12b

55.7%
Orzeł/Reszka, p = 50.1% → N = 1/4 miliona → σ = 0.1%
tu są te rzuty, a tu kod, który je wykonuje

11

2010
12

3450 ± 40 BP
3460 ± 30 BP

13

2002
14

O szkodliwości pojęcia nieskończoności

15

O szkodliwości pojęcia aktualizmu

16

Paleo-palinologia
POLPAL

Encyclopedia of Quaternary Science
17

18

19

19a

Kasprzyk I., Walanus A. 2010 Description of the main Poaceae pollen season using bi-Gaussian curves, and forecasting methods for the start and peak dates for this type of season in Rzeszów and Ostrowiec Św. (SE Poland), J. Environ. Monit.
19b

20

POLPAL Izopole
21

22

film

Walanus A. Nalepka D. Regional maps of rate of change of pollen percentage as a tool for climate change visualization, Geological Quarterly
23

bootstrapping

Temperatura film

Opad

Climatic Change

Twardosz R., Łupikasza E., Niedźwiedź T., Walanus A. 2012 Long-term variability of precipitation types in winter in Kraków, Poland,
24

Prokop P., Walanus A. 2014 Variation in the orographic extreme rain events over the Meghalaya Hills in northeast India in the two halves of the 20th century Theoretical and Applied Climatology
25

Twardosz R., Cebulska M., Walanus A. 2016 Anomalously heavy monthly and seasonal precipitation in the Polish Carpathian Mountains and their foreland during the years 1881-2010 Theoretical and Applied Climatology
26

40

41

42

43

Dzięgielewski K., Nalepka D., Chlebicki A., Walanus A.
Too young for tinder? The palaeoecological context and possible function of subfossil fungi (basidiomes) found in the settlement from the Early Iron Age in Podłęże, S Poland
Journal of Archaeological Science
30

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