Czy w naukach o Ziemi potrzebna jest statystyka?
Posiedzenie Komisji Nauk Geologicznych PAN Oddział w Krakowie
Adam Walanus
www.adamwalanus.pl
Katedra Geoinformatyki i Informatyki Stosowanej, Wydział Geologii, Geofizyki i Ochrony Środowiska
AGH
43 30 Odliczaj czas
123.4 ± 1.2
120.1 ± 2.4
121.8 ± 1.8
122.7 ± 1.1
1
g-2, 4.2σ
2
Pazdur M. F., Walanus A., Mościcki W.
1978
A method of continuous examination of counting efficiency during measurements of natural radiocarbon by a CO2 filled proportional counter
Nuclear Instruments and Methods
3
Rozkład normalny
14C T1/2 = 5730 lat
4
5
1995
6
7
8
9
10
Walanus A., 1990, Running phase analysis - a method for cycle searching in long series
Computers & Geosciences
14C Radiocarbon
11
12a
12b
55.7%
Orzeł/Reszka, p = 50.1% → N = 1/4 miliona → σ = 0.1%
tu są te rzuty, a tu kod, który je wykonuje
11
2010
12
3450 ± 40 BP
3460 ± 30 BP
13
2002
14
O szkodliwości pojęcia nieskończoności
15
O szkodliwości pojęcia aktualizmu
16
Paleo-palinologia
POLPAL
Encyclopedia of Quaternary Science
17
18
19
19a
Kasprzyk I., Walanus A. 2010 Description of the main Poaceae pollen season using bi-Gaussian curves, and forecasting methods for the start and peak dates for this type of season in Rzeszów and Ostrowiec Św. (SE Poland), J. Environ. Monit.
19b
20
POLPAL Izopole
21
22
film
Walanus A. Nalepka D. Regional maps of rate of change of pollen percentage as a tool for climate change visualization, Geological Quarterly
23
bootstrapping
Temperatura film
Opad
Climatic Change
Twardosz R., Łupikasza E., Niedźwiedź T., Walanus A. 2012 Long-term variability of precipitation types in winter in Kraków, Poland,
24
Prokop P., Walanus A. 2014 Variation in the orographic extreme rain events over the Meghalaya Hills in northeast India in the two halves of the 20th century Theoretical and Applied Climatology
25
Twardosz R., Cebulska M., Walanus A. 2016 Anomalously heavy monthly and seasonal precipitation in the Polish Carpathian Mountains and their foreland during the years 1881-2010 Theoretical and Applied Climatology
26
40
41
42
43
Dzięgielewski K., Nalepka D., Chlebicki A., Walanus A.
Too young for tinder? The palaeoecological context and possible function of subfossil fungi (basidiomes) found in the settlement from the Early Iron Age in Podłęże, S Poland
Journal of Archaeological Science
30